Insights

Following Donald Trump's US presidential election win, in the near term we remain constructive on US growth and stocks, with the markets expecting corporate tax cuts and seeing a general penchant toward deregulation across industries as positive for earnings. In the longer term, we anticipate a rise in tail risks associated with fewer hurdles to fiscal expansion and higher US inflation.

We illustrate Japan’s economic reflation by highlighting the following trends: households turning from savings to spending, pent-up demand meeting high wage growth, real household incoming becoming positive, a strong inbound tourism rebound and increasing willingness by firms to spend cash.

The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle was a boost to risk sentiment, with resilient US data and declining inflation placing the market in a goldilocks situation. Likewise, the start of a global rate cutting cycle sets up a positive environment for defensive assets.

In a move that reflected their disapproval of Japan's ruling coalition, voters deprived it of a lower house majority. While this outcome may not have a direct impact on the market, it is important to monitor the impact of political developments on economic policies in the short term.

The markets suggest that growth will stay at a premium in the short term. Hence, our focus on Future Quality companies, especially those capable of taking market share as the economic backdrop worsens, may prove beneficial.

When extreme market pessimism occurred in the past, there were significant corrections in undervalued stocks. While we anticipate it will take time for volatile market trends to stabilise, we believe now is a prime opportunity for bargain hunting in the Japanese market.

The market expects more rate cuts from the Fed, giving Asian central banks room to lower rates, which is very supportive for domestic growth. Meanwhile, with more China stimulus measures anticipated, we see asset allocation into Chinese equities picking up pace and lift the entire market.

Japan’s long history of undercompensating equity investors, a legacy of deflation, is coming to an end with its risk premium now achieving parity with that of the US. This historic shift is being driven by rising dividend payouts ratios, strong earnings and reasonable valuation of underlying equities.

The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle has created room for monetary easing across Asia. We expect Asian government bond yields, particularly high yielders like those of India, Indonesia and the Philippines, to trend lower.

Now that the Bank of Japan has exited its unconventional policy measures, particularly negative interest rates, the key question among global investors, especially those who remember Japan’s years of stop-start recovery attempts, is whether this time is really different.

Japan’s deflationary era was more than a lengthy period of declining prices. It also brought about profound yet rational changes in corporate behaviour. That ingrained desire from companies to hold onto cash and rein in spending may take time to fully dissipate, but there is already a notable shift underway.

This month we assess views in the market that the BOJ may have taken a dovish turn at its September policy meeting; we also point to further signs of a steady rise in wages and how that paves the way for a recovery in consumption and, ultimately, higher stocks.

Nikko AM NZ released its first annual “climate statement” under New Zealand’s new climate-related disclosures regime in July. The framework requires approximately 200 organisations, including large publicly listed companies, to release reports on how their activities may impact the climate and the effect of the climate on their businesses.

The raft of stimuli recently unveiled in China is the most coordinated policy since the start of the country’s economic downturn. This, along with the start of the Fed’s monetary policy easing, represents key fundamental changes. However, as the old saying goes, the devil is in the details.

We perceive heightened risk to both growth (two-way) and inflation (upside) compared to our previous guidance. Nevertheless, our central near-term scenario remains for slowing but positive growth in the US, alongside slowly moderating prices.

As global equity investors, we are often asked how we have successfully navigated an evolving market landscape since the strategy’s inception in 2014. The truth can ultimately be attributed to three key factors: humility, collaboration with people who share the same core team values and a robust investment philosophy.

For August we maintained our overweight growth position and a neutral position on defensives. Several factors continue to support our optimism towards growth assets, including the first rate cut from the Fed, earnings surprises remaining above their historic average, US economic growth beating expectations, and large fiscal spending globally.

Perhaps there may be disappointment at the lack of money-spinning applications pertaining to AI which may cause investor sentiment to cool. Nevertheless, the improvements in earnings and cash flow appear sustainable so far and are certainly much more attractive than those being produced by many other parts of the economy.

The Federal Reserve’s 50 bps rate cut demonstrated the power of financial markets at present. As the markets had already priced in a significant probability of a 50 bps reduction, the Fed could have viewed such conditions as a good time to “buy insurance” and implement a half a percentage point cut while the markets were likely to absorb it well.

There is one major thing to keep in mind going into Japan’s upcoming leadership contest for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—the country’s looming general election. The ruling party’s chief concern is to select a candidate who can prevail at this election. This makes the candidacy of an incipient LDP leader more of a marathon than a sprint.

We believe Japan’s programme of ongoing reforms will further benefit “cash-rich” firms, many of which are small and mid-cap companies.

We believe that the biggest fundamental change for Asian markets in the medium term is a shift in the interest rates regime, notably that of the US.

Once considered taboo in Japan, shareholder activism has been evolving. Japanese equity market culture has been changing dramatically, enabling shareholders to be more vocal and sometimes even hostile towards the companies they invest in, all in the name of “shareholder engagement”.

In a positive bond market environment driven by global monetary easing expectations, we favour government bonds from India, Indonesia and the Philippines, where higher yields remain attractive to investors.

This month we assess why the market is unfazed by Japan’s upcoming leadership change; we also explain how a bid for a prominent Japanese convenience store operator has highlighted how affordable domestic firms now look in the eyes of their foreign counterparts.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut in August appears to constitute a slight easing of the brakes rather than a large change. With the Official Cash Rate at 5.25%, conditions are still restrictive. The first signs of recovery are likely to be seen in improvements in business and consumer confidence, but it will take some time for the impact to filter through to borrowers.

In August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, marking the first change in the Official Cash Rate since May 2023. We expect New Zealand equities to be supported if the central bank maintains an accommodative approach.

The Global Equity Team answers the following questions related to the key trends they see emerging: 1)does the AI investment theme still offer significant long-term potential? 2) will the market leadership broaden beyond technology names into other sectors? and 3) what are the main risks and challenges equity investors may face in the remainder of 2024?

As the November 2024 US presidential elections draw ever closer, we explore the global trade, economic and geopolitical implications from an Asian equity perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and opportunities that could arise if Donald Trump secures a second term in office.

For August we reduced our overweight on growth assets amid volatility in the markets and maintained a neutral position on defensives. We expect volatility to be quelled, given that the markets have factored in the Fed cutting interest rates in September and with more easing anticipated over the following 12 months.

On 13 August, the Global Investment Committee held an extraordinary session to review the impact of recent volatile market movements. We maintain our central scenario for positive GDP growth in most major economies, although we see heightened downside risks to our US GDP growth outlook.

India remains the long-term growth story in Asia and continues to attract fresh investment flows. China, on the other hand, has become the value play waiting for positive catalysts to turnaround sentiment.

We expect the broader trend of easing global yields, prompted by expectations for the Fed to begin lowering interest rates, to support a downward bias in Asian bond yields. We continue to favour Indian and Philippine government bonds over their regional peers.

The weak yen has played a key role in Japan’s economic recovery by boosting its corporate profits, gross national income and current account surplus. However, it may be time to consider ways Japan can retain its recovery without help from a weak yen should the financial markets eventually change direction. The need for portfolio diversification and Japan’s structural reforms are some of the factors that could incentivise investors to trim their exposure abroad and reinvest domestically.

July was a remarkably strong month for New Zealand equities, with the strength of the market partly reflecting the dovish turn taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The Nikkei experienced its worst single-day fall early in August after reaching a record high just the previous month. Despite the recent slide, domestic factors supporting Japanese equities remain relatively unchanged, in our view. We believe that the narrative of Japan overcoming deflationary pressures due to increasing real wages is still intact.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stood pat on interest rates in its latest Monetary Policy Review in July, but it signalled a shift towards a more dovish stance, suggesting that a first rate cut could be conducted by the end of 2024.

We assess the extreme turbulence this week that rocked Japanese equities, which had reached record highs just last month. We discuss the factors that led to the sharp downturn at the start of the week and consider what could be in store for the market, including prospects for recovery.

Although market volatility resurfaced in the early part of the April-June quarter as interest rate cuts in the US began to look less likely amid higher-than-expected inflation, risk assets bounced back and rallied strongly later in the quarter. This reflected signs of softness in the US economy, which made it more likely that the Fed would be able to cut interest rates.

We retained both our overweight to growth assets and our neutral position on defensives. The outlook for growth remains positive as global central banks have started monetary easing, with Europe and Canada leading the way by cutting their interest rates.

Japan, a nation of “cash-rich” companies, is undergoing corporate reforms aimed at raising valuation of companies by improving their capital efficiency. The reforms, along with cash-rich companies' historical outperformance and strategic options due to their ample cash holdings, make these firms well worth exploring.

In China, we await confirmation of real, positive fundamental change before increasing our confidence towards the country, and we maintain a highly selective approach. Elsewhere, a combination of AI-induced excitement and positive structural reforms has driven Asian markets higher, particularly in Taiwan, South Korea and India.

We favour South Korean, Indian and Philippine government bonds and have adopted a neutral stance on Indonesian bonds. Meanwhile, the fundamentals backdrop for Asian credit remains supportive.

A look back at the past six months reveals the extent to which New Zealand’s equity market has missed out on the strength seen in many other global markets. Amid these struggles, however, the New Zealand market’s sensitivity to interest rates also offers a note of hope.

Given the current weakness in New Zealand’s economy, the key question regarding interest rates is not so much the direction they will take but when they are likely to be cut. The struggles seen in the economy span from GDP to employment and look set to persist for some time.

This month we focus on the surge in long-term JGB yields and whether it poses a threat to equities; we also discuss the potential upside for Japan’s small- and mid-cap stocks.

Asian small caps, ranging from “indie” cosmetics brands to bicycle manufacturers, present a chance to get involved with the future economic powerhouses of the world. The strategic positioning, high growth potential, adaptability, and innovation of Asian small caps make them a compelling choice.

In the current financial landscape, where ESG outflows are making headlines and greenwashing risks remain in the spotlight, one trend stands out—the surge in green bond issuance.

Our central scenario is for positive GDP growth in most major economies, with mild upside risks to growth in all regions but Europe. Within this central scenario, we anticipate range-bound inflation with a gradual disinflationary trend in the US and Europe. We expect reflation to continue in Japan and also to pick up in China.

Recently, China has been frequently appearing in global headlines, although many of these stories are not particularly encouraging. Amidst a fixation with the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, global markets may be missing the obvious, quieter China trade.