Donald Trump has won and the world has changed. A real estate developer cum reality TV star will soon be the leader of the free world.
Following Trump’s election, our Emerging Market team in London, supported by John Vail, our Global Chief Strategist, discuss what, at this early stage, we can potentially expect to see from the US regarding its relationship with Emerging Market economies.
October was another difficult month for Global credit markets, in particular for Investment Grade bonds. By contrast, more risky High Yield bonds outperformed.
Our oil experts in the US and London analyze the Saudi oil conundrum.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager for Asian equities reflects on Asian markets in the wake of Trump’s Triumph.
Neither Brexit nor Trump’s win was an accident – ‘the people’, in particular the working and middle classes, are purposefully and deliberately giving the political elites a thump on the nose.
Asia ex-Japan equities returned -1.5% in US Dollar (USD) terms, outperforming the MSCI World which declined by 1.9%.
USTs ended lower in October. Better US economic data and a hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bolstered expectations of a December interest rate hike.
Much like the BREXIT result, Americans surprised the consensus with an anti-establishment vote.
Our Senior Portfolio Manager for ASEAN equities reviews the trend towards Strongman rule in ASEAN.
Advances in science and technology are continuously changing and progressing the medical profession and broader healthcare industry. While the industry growth will be strong, not all participants will fare equally.
Our Multi-Asset portfolio manager based in Singapore reviews the prospects for profit margin expansion in the three main Emerging Market regions.
Emerging markets (EM) have endured strong adjustments in commodities and currencies that coupled with reforms makes a good case for better growth ahead.
"Find growth and you will find performance" was our Asian Equity investment mantra in early 2016 as the world grappled with slowing growth and lethargy with monetary experimentaton in low and depressed interest rates.
As we enter the final quarter of 2016, concerns around political risk are at an uncomfortable level. October saw further volatility in the UK Pound, as negotiations around Brexit drove the currency to its lowest level in over 30 years.
Asia ex-Japan equities rose in September, returning 1.6% in US Dollar (USD) terms and outperforming both the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices.
USTs ended September mixed. While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and the Bank of Japan reinforced commitment to monetary easing, the ECB's lack of new stimulus disappointed the market.
It has continued to be a wild roller-coaster ride for investors, and unfortunately, it is not likely to be very calm for the foreseeable future. Investors must keep a keen eye on geopolitical risk and be ready to act if such appear to accelerate into a situation that could significantly impact markets.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, markets have become accustomed to central banks calling the shots. Investors eagerly await each central bank meeting in the hope some new form of monetary policy chicanery can help propel markets higher.
No turning back — 2% inflation target not only intact but enhanced with a new “inflation overshooting commitment”
Although it is tempting to join the ‘peak demand’ bandwagon, as investors it is important to understand the impact that different technologies (and their timing) have on energy prices.
Our UK expert on BREXIT and our chief global strategist respond to Japan’s concern about its investments in the UK.
QE policies have had a material impact on bond yields and valuations. We believe that the evolution of these policies will be more important than fundamentals in indicating when bonds can break the cycle of ever-declining yields.
Central bank policy from the US, Japan and Europe are strongly affecting the current global fixed income markets. New Zealand and Canadian economies also face continued pressure.
Given how important central bank policies are for the pricing of assets, our focus has to be on what they do next. If debt monetisation were to occur, it would have significant implications for equity investing.