Insights

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Can the momentum shift on plastic pollution?

The highly anticipated Global Plastics Treaty carries high hopes as it will be the first attempt at forming a global legally binding instrument to address plastic pollution across its entire lifecycle. Tackling plastic pollution will be a long, bumpy road requiring international cooperation, stringent policies and significant financial investment to drive effective solutions.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (October 2024)

The bond market has turned its attention to the likely size of further interest rate reductions now that the RBNZ has made two cuts to the Official Cash Rate in quick succession. Our view is that New Zealand’s monetary policy is on track to revive the economy, although the recovery will take some time.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (October 2024)

The RBNZ's recent shift to a more dovish stance already appears to have buoyed New Zealand's equities at this early stage of the cycle, with examples including signs of strength in the retirement village and rental sectors, and the market has been delivering strong returns.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November was largely expected. However, Fed Chair Powell's comments pointed to changes in language, suggesting a shift towards a more uncertain policy, with inflation and employment trends influencing future rate adjustments.

As with the other markets, Japanese equities reacted immediately to Donald Trump's US presidential election win. The immediate election impact is expected to fade relatively quickly, with market focus turning to the trade policies Trump may pursue upon his return to the White House.

Balancing Act: Global Multi-Asset Quarterly (Q3 2024)

Volatility dominated risk markets in the early part of the July-September quarter, while perceptions of the US employment environment also had an impact. Over the quarter, we kept an overweight position on growth assets and maintained a neutral position on defensive assets.

After Trump’s win, fiscal policy and inflation risks in focus

Following Donald Trump's US presidential election win, in the near term we remain constructive on US growth and stocks, with the markets expecting corporate tax cuts and seeing a general penchant toward deregulation across industries as positive for earnings. In the longer term, we anticipate a rise in tail risks associated with fewer hurdles to fiscal expansion and higher US inflation.

Japan’s economic reflation in five charts

We illustrate Japan’s economic reflation by highlighting the following trends: households turning from savings to spending, pent-up demand meeting high wage growth, real household incoming becoming positive, a strong inbound tourism rebound and increasing willingness by firms to spend cash.
The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle was a boost to risk sentiment, with resilient US data and declining inflation placing the market in a goldilocks situation. Likewise, the start of a global rate cutting cycle sets up a positive environment for defensive assets.

Navigating Japan Equities (November 2024): view of lower house elections

In a move that reflected their disapproval of Japan's ruling coalition, voters deprived it of a lower house majority. While this outcome may not have a direct impact on the market, it is important to monitor the impact of political developments on economic policies in the short term.

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