Insights

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Asian fixed income outlook 2025

Asian local government bonds are poised to perform well in 2025 thanks to accommodative policies by central banks amid benign inflation and moderating growth. The global easing cycle is expected to lower global yields, thereby providing additional support to Asian bond markets.

Asian equity outlook 2025

Many may expect the incoming Trump administration's transactional approach to be detrimental to the geopolitical and macroeconomic landscapes. However, we believe that Washington's mercantilist stance should not prevent Asian markets from offering attractive absolute returns, as was the case during the 2017-2021 period under Trump's first term.

Future Quality Insights: pandemic memories and ongoing impact on companies

We believe that investors should strive for a diversified global portfolio of quality companies that can thrive in an environment where the cost of capital may be higher than previously expected. Our collective experience of the pandemic reminds us that such an approach is a good idea.
We increased the overweight to growth assets given that economic data remains resilient against falling inflation and as global central banks lower interest rates. Regarding defensive assets, we have been relatively negative on sovereign bonds, and despite the rate-cutting cycle underway, we maintain this view.
During the first Trump presidency, China outperformed the S&P 500 and all the perceived beneficiaries of "China Plus One". While history may not be repeated, it is clear that China's domestic policy and market environment will become significant factors during Trump's second presidency.
We have adopted a more cautious stance on Thai bonds with the Bank of Thailand not expected to ease policy further following its interest rate cut in October. Elsewhere in the region, the reappointment of Sri Mulyani Indrawati as Indonesia's finance minister provides a positive medium-term outlook for Indonesian government bonds

Can the momentum shift on plastic pollution?

The highly anticipated Global Plastics Treaty carries high hopes as it will be the first attempt at forming a global legally binding instrument to address plastic pollution across its entire lifecycle. Tackling plastic pollution will be a long, bumpy road requiring international cooperation, stringent policies and significant financial investment to drive effective solutions.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (October 2024)

The bond market has turned its attention to the likely size of further interest rate reductions now that the RBNZ has made two cuts to the Official Cash Rate in quick succession. Our view is that New Zealand’s monetary policy is on track to revive the economy, although the recovery will take some time.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (October 2024)

The RBNZ's recent shift to a more dovish stance already appears to have buoyed New Zealand's equities at this early stage of the cycle, with examples including signs of strength in the retirement village and rental sectors, and the market has been delivering strong returns.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November was largely expected. However, Fed Chair Powell's comments pointed to changes in language, suggesting a shift towards a more uncertain policy, with inflation and employment trends influencing future rate adjustments.

As with the other markets, Japanese equities reacted immediately to Donald Trump's US presidential election win. The immediate election impact is expected to fade relatively quickly, with market focus turning to the trade policies Trump may pursue upon his return to the White House.

Balancing Act: Global Multi-Asset Quarterly (Q3 2024)

Volatility dominated risk markets in the early part of the July-September quarter, while perceptions of the US employment environment also had an impact. Over the quarter, we kept an overweight position on growth assets and maintained a neutral position on defensive assets.

After Trump’s win, fiscal policy and inflation risks in focus

Following Donald Trump's US presidential election win, in the near term we remain constructive on US growth and stocks, with the markets expecting corporate tax cuts and seeing a general penchant toward deregulation across industries as positive for earnings. In the longer term, we anticipate a rise in tail risks associated with fewer hurdles to fiscal expansion and higher US inflation.

Japan’s economic reflation in five charts

We illustrate Japan’s economic reflation by highlighting the following trends: households turning from savings to spending, pent-up demand meeting high wage growth, real household incoming becoming positive, a strong inbound tourism rebound and increasing willingness by firms to spend cash.
The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle was a boost to risk sentiment, with resilient US data and declining inflation placing the market in a goldilocks situation. Likewise, the start of a global rate cutting cycle sets up a positive environment for defensive assets.

Navigating Japan Equities (November 2024): view of lower house elections

In a move that reflected their disapproval of Japan's ruling coalition, voters deprived it of a lower house majority. While this outcome may not have a direct impact on the market, it is important to monitor the impact of political developments on economic policies in the short term.

Global Equity Quarterly (Q3 2024)

The markets suggest that growth will stay at a premium in the short term. Hence, our focus on Future Quality companies, especially those capable of taking market share as the economic backdrop worsens, may prove beneficial.

After the correction: the case for value investing in Japan

When extreme market pessimism occurred in the past, there were significant corrections in undervalued stocks. While we anticipate it will take time for volatile market trends to stabilise, we believe now is a prime opportunity for bargain hunting in the Japanese market.
The market expects more rate cuts from the Fed, giving Asian central banks room to lower rates, which is very supportive for domestic growth. Meanwhile, with more China stimulus measures anticipated, we see asset allocation into Chinese equities picking up pace and lift the entire market.

Japan’s pivotal improvement in risk premium

Japan’s long history of undercompensating equity investors, a legacy of deflation, is coming to an end with its risk premium now achieving parity with that of the US. This historic shift is being driven by rising dividend payouts ratios, strong earnings and reasonable valuation of underlying equities.
The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle has created room for monetary easing across Asia. We expect Asian government bond yields, particularly high yielders like those of India, Indonesia and the Philippines, to trend lower.

Home advantage: three reasons why Japan’s resurgence is no flash in the pan

Now that the Bank of Japan has exited its unconventional policy measures, particularly negative interest rates, the key question among global investors, especially those who remember Japan’s years of stop-start recovery attempts, is whether this time is really different.

Corporate Japan looks healthier now than it has ever been

Japan’s deflationary era was more than a lengthy period of declining prices. It also brought about profound yet rational changes in corporate behaviour. That ingrained desire from companies to hold onto cash and rein in spending may take time to fully dissipate, but there is already a notable shift underway.

Navigating Japan Equities: Monthly Insights From Tokyo (October 2024)

This month we assess views in the market that the BOJ may have taken a dovish turn at its September policy meeting; we also point to further signs of a steady rise in wages and how that paves the way for a recovery in consumption and, ultimately, higher stocks.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (September 2024)

Nikko AM NZ released its first annual “climate statement” under New Zealand’s new climate-related disclosures regime in July. The framework requires approximately 200 organisations, including large publicly listed companies, to release reports on how their activities may impact the climate and the effect of the climate on their businesses.

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