The Singapore economy is on a road to recovery. Although the economy has already rebounded sharply in 2021, we expect the recovery theme to remain intact and continue supporting the Singapore economy in 2022. We see a broadening of growth within Singapore’s key economic engines in 2022, with a sharper recovery expected in the services sector as the economy reopens.
Amid a flurry of headlines, investors may have largely overlooked the significant number of recent positive developments in China, such as initiatives directed towards ambitious renewables targets, the continued opening up of the financial sectors and support for a significant number of industries including AI and big data. We believe these areas could become the new leaders of China’s capital markets, representing investment themes for the next several decades.
The economic recovery in Asia ex-China is likely to improve significantly in 2022 as regulations are eased, borders are reopened and vaccination rates increase. We anticipate these developments to boost private sector confidence, providing an important tailwind for Asian ex-China growth in 2022.
We present our 2022 outlook for core markets, emerging markets and global credit.
Asian stocks fell in November on concerns that the spread of the new Omicron COVID-19 variant could derail global reopening plans and delay economic recoveries.
The macro backdrop and robust corporate credit fundamentals remain supportive of Asia credit spreads. As such, we expect growth momentum of many Asian economies to gather pace heading into 2022. Overall corporate credit fundamentals are expected to remain robust, with earnings growth staying strong—albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to 2021.
The global economy should match the consensus for strong growth, thanks to vaccinations, continued fiscal stimulus, acceptable global geopolitical conditions, and continued low interest rates despite increasingly hawkish central banks. Such, via increased corporate profits, should allow equity markets to perform very well ahead, with impressive returns in each region, particularly in Japan.
We assess Japan PM Kishida’s record stimulus package and its potential implications for the pandemic-hit economy; we also gauge what the new political administration could mean for the Japanese capital markets currently undergoing significant changes.
The just released 3Q CY21 data on aggregate corporate profits in Japan was very positive, as although for the single quarter, the overall corporate recurring pre-tax profit margin declined from the 2Q, as it does routinely for this non-seasonally adjusted data.
Just a few weeks ago I attended my first in-person conference since 2019. Over 40,000 people descended upon Lisbon for Web Summit, one of the world’s largest technology conferences. The event brings together CEO’s and founders of established firms together with start-ups and policymakers to discuss and pitch ideas over the course of a week.