Is Volatility too low and what re-pricing could mean for various asset markets
The Trump reflation trade may have lost some of its shine during the quarter, but any disappointment was more than overshadowed by strong global data as exports and production continued to gather pace.
In the continuing aftermath of the US Presidential elections, it is easy to overlook the many other macro-political events that made 2016 such an exceptional year.
2016 may best be remembered as the year in which Trump won and the world changed. The question becomes which reforms will take centre stage.
Donald Trump has won and the world has changed. A real estate developer cum reality TV star will soon be the leader of the free world.
Our Multi-Asset portfolio manager based in Singapore reviews the prospects for profit margin expansion in the three main Emerging Market regions.
Emerging markets (EM) have endured strong adjustments in commodities and currencies that coupled with reforms makes a good case for better growth ahead.
As we enter the final quarter of 2016, concerns around political risk are at an uncomfortable level. October saw further volatility in the UK Pound, as negotiations around Brexit drove the currency to its lowest level in over 30 years.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, markets have become accustomed to central banks calling the shots. Investors eagerly await each central bank meeting in the hope some new form of monetary policy chicanery can help propel markets higher.
Another summer has passed in the northern hemisphere and any Brexit-related jitters appear a distant memory. Global equities have rallied almost 10% since the June lows, with most markets now in positive territory for the year.
We generally refrain from quoting external sources, but found the strength of this statement compelling. Calling an end to a 35-year long bull market is incredibly bold and we are unsure if it will prove to be right or wrong.
Many are wondering if it's time to give up on Abenomics. While some of the scepticism is understandable, we believe it is too early to throw in the towel.
TWe have been concerned for some time that the disillusioned middle class would eventually rail against the existing establishment and the set of policies they feel are responsible for leaving them behind.
The UK's late June vote in favour of 'Brexit' was initially read as a deep negative, particularly given that markets were priced strongly in favour of a 'Remain' vote. However, after brief reflection, markets outside the region saw a rally, with risk asset performance more than making up for Brexit losses.
We have previously written about our concern that monetary policy is reaching the limits of its effectiveness, particularly when considering zero and negative interest rate policies (ZIRP & NIRP) and quantitative easing (QE).
On April 24, the first round of elections was held for a new Austrian President. The position is subordinate to the Austrian Chancellor but had still been controlled by the two mainstream parties in Austria for decades.
Since 2011, Brazilian assets have re-priced to the downside. Given the size of the adjustment – both in commodities and assets – the question is whether Brazil is now presenting attractive investment opportunities.
On March 10, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered what is commonly referred to in market parlance as the ‘bazooka’ – a stimulus programme well beyond market expectations.
2016 began in complete panic, with risk assets including emerging markets (EMs) selling off deeply through the first few weeks of the year.
As we have seen over the past year in the equity market, the more Beijing wants to exert control, the more it slips away. Is pragmatism going to trump ideology in Beijing? In the current environment, the PBOC letting the RMB free float might not be so unbelievable after all.
Our Singapore Multi-Asset and Equity team analysts cover oil’s swoon using a bit of humor, but the clear-cut conclusion is of great importance.
In early 2016, hedge fund Nevsky Capital decided to call it quits after 15 years of successful asset management. One of the reasons for the closure is that since the global financial crisis (GFC), emerging markets (EMs) are breaking away from the transparent 'Washington Concensus' model and are now prone to much less predictible nationalistic policies.
Real yields and inflation expectations currently suggest exceptionally low growth and low inflation far out into the future.
There are several credible reasons to expect that QE will boost corporate earnings in Europe, though by not as much as in the US. However the risk of disappointment relative to inflated expectations remains high.
These reforms coupled with strong balance sheets and demographics will support higher levels of global growth for decades to come.