Asia-Pacific

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - November 2016

USTs ended lower in October. Better US economic data and a hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bolstered expectations of a December interest rate hike.

Populism and Strongman Rule - Is Duterte a role model for ASEAN?

Our Senior Portfolio Manager for ASEAN equities reviews the trend towards Strongman rule in ASEAN.

Earnings recovery is much more achievable in EM Asia than LatAm or EMEA

Our Multi-Asset portfolio manager based in Singapore reviews the prospects for profit margin expansion in the three main Emerging Market regions.

ASEAN Equity Outlook - October 2016

"Find growth and you will find performance" was our Asian Equity investment mantra in early 2016 as the world grappled with slowing growth and lethargy with monetary experimentaton in low and depressed interest rates.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - October 2016

Asia ex-Japan equities rose in September, returning 1.6% in US Dollar (USD) terms and outperforming both the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - October 2016

USTs ended September mixed. While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and the Bank of Japan reinforced commitment to monetary easing, the ECB's lack of new stimulus disappointed the market.

Interpreting Signals in Unprecedented Times - Japan Equity Market Outlook

No turning back — 2% inflation target not only intact but enhanced with a new “inflation overshooting commitment”

Will Japan Exit the UK?

Our UK expert on BREXIT and our chief global strategist respond to Japan’s concern about its investments in the UK.

More Radical Central Bank Policies and Implications for Stock Picking

Given how important central bank policies are for the pricing of assets, our focus has to be on what they do next. If debt monetisation were to occur, it would have significant implications for equity investing.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - September 2016

Asia ex-Japan equities extended its upward momentum in August, returning 3.4% in US Dollar (USD) terms and outperforming MSCI World by 3.3%.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - September 2016

USTs ended marginally lower in August as the market adjusted to the possibility of a Fed rate hike, buoyed by sustained resilience in the labour market.

Japan’s “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance

Given the release of the second quarter data, we update our decade-long theme about improving corporate governance in Japan.

Hitting the Mark: Can Third Arrow Reforms Benefit Investors?

Japan is a consensus-driven culture and improved corporate governance is now the consensus. There are clear signs that many companies are moving towards more shareholder-oriented management.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - August 2016

Asia ex Japan equities rose by 4.8% in USD terms in July, outpacing global equities. Hopes for monetary and fiscal stimulus led to strong buying of Asian equities.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - August 2016

US Treasury (UST) yields ended July mixed: yields of shorter maturities climbed, whilse those of longer maturities fell.

Fintech – Disruptor or Saviour?

Our expert on Asian financials describes the exciting technological developments that will change the way we all do business in the future.

Japan's Election: Abe's Continued Focus on the Economy

Our Chief Strategist in Japan shares his views on political landscape and the economy.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - July 2016

Asia ex Japan equities rose by 2.7% in USD terms in June, outpacing global equities. The Brexit shock proved short-lived for regional markets as investors started to price in greater monetary and fiscal stimulus across major economies.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - July 2016

US Treasury (UST) yields gained in a volatile mon across asset classes. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) scaled back projections for raising interest rates, while the UK voted to leave the EU by a 4% margin, surprising markets.

Abenomics hasn't failed yet, but it does face global headwinds

Many are wondering if it's time to give up on Abenomics. While some of the scepticism is understandable, we believe it is too early to throw in the towel.

Brexit - Japan Equity Update

In light of the significant volatility ensuing from the results of the EU Referendum in the UK, we share our initial thoughts on the evolving situation as well as provide an update on the strategy you are invested or have an interest in and the implications of the event on the broader investment landscape in Japan.

Brexit - Asian Fixed Income Update

The immediate fallout from the Brexit win has been a strong flight to safety. US Treasuries rallied with the UST 10-year yield down to 1.44%, lower by 31 basis points (bps) on 27 June 2016.

Slowdown but No Global Recession, with EU Cohesion, but Struggling UK

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee’s post-BREXIT scenario, including market and economic targets, is on the moderately gloomy side.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - June 2016

Asia ex Japan equities declined by 1.3% in USD terms in May, largely on the back of currency weakness. Markets started the month under pressure, but later recovered on better-than-expected US economic data and recovering oil prices.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - June 2016

US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged in May. The impact of a disappointing US payroll figure was offset by the release of the US Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes, which revealed that most policymakers favoured a rate hike in June should the US economy continue to improve.

Japan’s Financial State is Maintainable

Our Chief Strategist in Japan explains why Japan’s government debt situation is sustainable.

Fed rate rise most likely in September, but could be delayed until 2017

Our global rates and currencies strategist in Australia lays out his dovish Fed scenario as an alternative to our house view. In it, he expects the Fed to wait until September or later to raise rates, and states his case that the Fed’s actions do not affect US bond yields.

Emerging Markets: Are we there yet?

Our two leading Global Emerging Market debt experts, both based in London, weigh the possibilities of a sustained upturn in this long-suffering asset class.

Asian Equity Monthly Outlook - May 2016

Asia ex Japan (AxJ) equities declined by 0.9% in USD terms in April, largely on the back of currency weakness. Oil markets reached their highest levels since last November, while activity data in China improved.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly Outlook - May 2016

US Treasury (UST) yields rose in April, as hopes of stabilization in the Chinese economy underpinned demand for riskier assets.

Abenomics is Alive and Well

Our Chief Global Strategist explains the reasons why there is too much unjustified pessimism about Abenomics.

The Subtle Shift in Asian Currencies from the Dollar to the Renminbi

Our Asian currency expert discusses the potential ramifications of the increasing CNY-orientation for Asian currencies.

G-3 and Chinese Economies Moderately Firmer in 2016

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on March 29th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.

Fed in June and December, but ECB or BOJ Slight Easing

We expect June and December Fed hikes, but only mild further easing ahead for the BOJ and ECB. Meanwhile, we expect oil prices to creep higher through 2016 despite the stronger USD due to relatively firm economic developments in China and the G-3.

We expect that global equity and bond investing will be positive for Yen based investors due to Yen weakness, but for USD based investors, we are taking only a neutral stance on global equities due to a cautious forecast for US equities, whereas we are positive on Asia-Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe. Meanwhile, we are moderately negative on bonds in each region when measured in USD terms, so we underweight them.

ASEAN: Reversal of Fortunes?

Our Singapore-based Fixed Income Portfolio Manager details the reasons for ASEAN’s recent rebound and why such should continue.

Japan's "Show Me the Money" Corporate Governance - March 2016

Our global strategist sheds light on how corporate profit margins are reflecting the continuing improvement of corporate governance in Japan.

BOJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates

This policy change by the BOJ is a positive in terms of maintaining and strengthening the inflation expectations that have begun to flower.

The BOJ's Bold Move is Not a Shot in a Currency War

Unfortunately for the soundness of the sleep among BOJ-watchers, Mr. Kuroda believes that surprising the market is the best way to achieve his intended result.

The Japanese Equity Outlook After the Nasty New Year Start

Our Chief Global Strategist regards Japan positively in the global-macro context and predicts that Japanese equities will outperform global equities in the first half of 2016.

Japan Equity Outlook 2016

Our Chief Investment Officer in Japan details the many reasons for optimism on Japanese equities in 2016

Abenomics Shows Power through Tax Reform

There are many concerns about Abenomics losing its power to reform the economy, but our Chief Strategist in Japan, Naoki Kamiyama, shows that the major developments in tax reform prove that Abenomics is alive and well.

China: Lost in transition?

James Eginton provides his insights on the economic transition in China following a recent research trip to the region. The transition from a reliance on infrastructure investment to consumer spending - perhaps the largest the world will ever see - has significant implications for global growth.

The Fed was even more Dovish than Apparent in the Headlines

John Vail reflects on the Fed decision and the path forward. The Fed was even more dovish than apparent in the headlines.

US & China Economies Sturdy in 2016; So-So for EZ and Japan

Nikko Asset Management's Global Investment Committee met on December 8th and updated our intermediate-term house view on the global economic backdrop, central bank policies, financial markets and investment strategy advice.

Fed Normalization, but not ECB or BOJ

We only expect mild further easing ahead, especially as the ECB does not wish to cause a rupture while the Fed is hiking rates.

We forecast that Asia Pac ex Japan, Japan and Europe will outperform in the next six months, while the US should underperform and, thus, deserve an underweight stance vs. all other regions.

Japan's revised GDP: No Recession as Inventories Finally Realistic

Looking forward, even though inventories were revised higher, their long depletion means they remain far too low in my view, and should continue start to rise significantly in the quarters and years ahead.

What's to come? - China's RMB as a global reserve currency

The IMF's decision to include the Renminbi into the SDR is a major push for the RMB to become one of the world's major reserve currencies.

Australia: Lower GDP growth and CPI should mean lower 10-year bond yields

Our lead Australian fixed income portfolio manager discusses her intermediate-term outlook for the bond market “down under.”

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